Month: April 2018

Just as an FYI this blog was penned Friday afternoon as my editor is heading off to the sun with her winnings from my tips!!

Going to start off with the feature on Saturday, the mares champion hurdle. Apples Jade @ 6/4 is by far my nap for the week, reported in some quarters to be found in season after her run in Cheltenham. The 4yo hurdle looks like a cracking event with Farclas, Mr Adjudactor and my selection Stormy Ireland @ 3/1 all clashing again.

The Pat Taaffe handicap chase opens the card on Saturday where we have a tentative selection for the Liam Cusack trained Lasoscar, off the course for the last four months but running off this mark, there’s a nice prize during the summer for this guy. The 3m 6f chase Forever Gold is the one to be on, running a cracker,  finishing third in the Irish national on ground he hates.

To finish off the Punchestown week going to plum for Uradel, made favourite on his handicap bow in Fairyhouse and with the experience of that run and with Rachael on board hopefully we can end the meeting with a bang..

Bets:

3.10 Lasoscar 10/1ew.

5.00 Forever Gold 9/1ew.

5.35 Uradel 20/1ew.

P/L. +€71 to a €10 level stake.

A rare thing happened yesterday I tipped a 12/1 winner, Dawn Shadow doing the business in the mares novice hurdle for the Dot Love and Rachael Blackmore partnership. The trainers championship looks all but over with Willie holding a lead of €424K, even if Samcro wins today Willie is surely going to fill the placings..

Going to start today with the novice handicap chase, this looks an open looking contest with Kemboy put in as 9/2 favourite, winning nicely in Limerick the last day after falling early in the Irish national, our pick Koshari @ 12/1, a stablemate of the favourite, also winning a minor event in Clonmel the last day and its a bit of form splitting Invitation Only and The Storyteller here in January won’t see him far away, of course having Rachael on board is going to be a big help. In the mares handicap chase Slowmotion @ 6/1 is the pick, she is carrying top weight in this but don’t let that put you off as she is a big strong mare, also coming back from a break she will be ready to run as Joseph gets them fit. The only thing I will say about the Champion hurdle is Samcro @ 4/5 is very short. The champion novice going to side with the Mags Mullins trained Debuchet @ 6/1. I have liked this fellow for a while now and I think the better ground will help this one go very close. In the 2m novice going to go with the Mullins second string again, Antey @ 14/1 is a good each way price, with a quiet ride from Noel Fehily he could well run into a place or even better.

Bets:

4.20 Koshari @ 12/1 ew.

4.55 Slowmotion @ 6/1 ew.

6.05 Debuchet @ 6/1 ew.

7.10 Antey @ 14/1 ew.

P/L  + €13 to a €10 level stake.

We’re going to start today’s blog with a little chat about the goings on yesterday. When you’re struggling to find a winner for the blog readers and you tip up Blast of Koeman, is it time to give it up ?? This guy must have Robert Tyners heart and pockets well broken, he is some thief! He came there yesterday looking to have everything covered but did his best to lose Philip over the last who did some job to stay on, as I said yesterday on the blog this handicap chase was full of rogues!! What can you say about WPM 6 winners yesterday, hard to add to whatever has been said already but come the big day Willie’s horses run to their optimum. What must Gordon be thinking? Will a million be enough next year going into this meeting. Read a good one on twitter last night about Paul Townsend saying it was like the person in the office who looks after the Irish lottery syndicate by mistake did the euro millions but there numbers came out on the Irish lotto and he was not very popular of course but by some chance the same numbers came up in the Euro millions the next day. Getting a bit worried about the way the green and gold colours are preforming at the moment especially the number one jockey has only ridden 21 winners in Ireland this season, a change is coming….

Going to concentrate on the three handicaps and the mares novice today. Western Ruler @ 14/1 is the one to set the ball rolling today for Mouse and Rachael, a good winner in Fairyhouse, gone up 9lbs but this might not stop this fellow. Three Stars @ 11/1 is my bet of the day in the handicap chase, ran a cracker behind Patricks Park at Leopardstown February, fifth in the Johnny Henderson at Cheltenham and both two lines of form have been well franked. Dadsintrouble @ 50/1 in the 6.05 handicap hurdle could run well above his price and the trip to Ireland from Tim Vaughan’s welsh yard might raise this fellows game. In the mares novice Dawn Shadow @ 12/1 never seems to but in a bad performance for Dot Love, she has been active all year and I can see Rachael guiding this one into the money.

Bets:

3.40 Western Ruler @ 14/1 ew.

4.05 Three Stars @ 11/1 ew.

6.05 Dadsintrouble @ 50/1 ew.

7.15 Dawn Shadow @ 12/1 ew.

 

P/L – €32 to a €10 level stake.

Where to start this blog…..  with Rachael of course! She gave True Self a super ride, keeping her out of trouble and sending her for home, turning in, a winner! Badly needed for me on a day it was hard to get them. Only two favourites placed in the whole day with the jackpot paying 20k plus. The placepot nearly 8k and the pick 6 not won rolling over into today. Nearly everyone has had their say on the Paul Townsend situation and here’s mine….. PT is an outstanding young hard working man, very loyal to the Mullins yard and clearly he made a big mistake, build a bridge and get over. The story for me about the race was both horses coming a cropper at the second last, Monalee was going well when falling, taking down Invitation Only. These two were going to fight it out to the finish, so put this in your memory bank.

The opener today is impossible a 25 runner conditional jockeys handicap hurdle. Sure the winner is sticking out Tourboy @ 16/1. The 4yo hurdle is next, if we can get Barry to give Sire Du Berlais an aggressive ride he should be good enough for these at 5/2. The 3m novice, are you willing to forgive Next Destination his poor run at Cheltenham and if so, is 7/4 a price your willing to take?

The Gold cup comes up next, Road to Respect is ticking all the boxes in this one and 3/1 is a fair enough price. Willie has the next four in the betting, Bellshill, Killultagh Vic, Djakadam and Total Recall, the only one who might get close to the Noel Meade charge is Total Recall if you forgive his run in the Grand National, fences he never took to. Rachael rides Alpha Des Obeaux who gave her a horrific fall at the chair in Aintree, this guy can run into a place at big odds. The champion bumper looks a very hot renewal this year with the Mullins team having the first four in the betting, Felix Desjy @ 8/1 is the one for me, never settled in Cheltenham which cost him and if Barry O Neill can work his magic this fellow has some engine. The handicap chase if full of rogues so taking a chance on Blast of Koeman @ 13/2 wearing cheek pieces for the first time today.

Bets:

3.40 Tourboy @ 16/1 ew.

4.20 Sire Des Berlais @ 5/2.

Road to Respect @ 3/1.

Felix Desjy @ 8/1 ew.

Blast of Koeman @ 13/2 ew.

P/L  + €4 to a level stake of €10.

We’re in the final furlong of the national hunt season with lots to play for but the only story in town this week is going to be Elliott v Mullins. In my eyes this is great for racing because it has caught the attention of not only the racing folk but the general sport fan will be keeping an eye on how things are developing during the week. With Gordon leading the way by €521k it sounds a lot but Willies not going to give this title away easily as we seen last year.

On to the racing the first race is the Fr Sean Breen Memorial Chase for the Ladies cup a nice gentle way to get things under way, not a betting race but if your feeling jiggy and need to get things rolling Enda looks the man to follow in this with 6 of the last 10 winners Blue Templar @ 6/4 to get favourite backers off to a flyer. The 2m champion novice comes up next where Getabird @ 5/4 tops the betting, was very impressive the last day in Fairyhouse but more depth to the field here, but with lots in his favour like going right handed and the rain falling it will take a good one to lower this fellow colours.

The 2m handicap hurdle is by far the toughest race of the day to crack for punters, good news I have It down to seven!!! Top weight Lagostovegas, Joey Sasa had a nice prep winning in Dundalk a few weeks back. Golden Spear trained by Tony Martin watch the market but got a  feeling Galway is the plan for this fellow. Western Boy coming back from a lay off but one not to discount, True Self falling last week when beaten but Rachael will get a tune out of her. Top Ten having his handicap debut could be very well in but lacks the experience of a tough looking event. In the end going to go for Grand Partner @ 22/1, would be very sweet on this fellow if he didn’t make the trip to Aintree and another negative is David moving to ride Lagostovegas but Bryan Cooper could do with a change of luck and hopefully today is the day.

The champion chase is a watch race for me as Douvan @ 10/11 is very short and will need to be back to his best to keep stable mate Min at bay. The champion 3m novice looks more competitive, Monalee @ 7/4 looks solid finishing behind Presenting Percy, Shattered Love has been kept busy since winning at Cheltenham but she’s tough. My old friend Dounikos lines up, also it was madness running this fellow in the Irish grand national i’m adamant he needs better ground, so going to go for Rathvinden @ 10/1, a good winner of the 4 miler in Cheltenham and with a clear round of jumping here will not be out of the placings. No opinion on the bumpers on the card so if you got a fancy please let us know.

Bets:

4.20 Getabird @ 5/4

4.55 Grand Partner @ 22/1 ew

6.40 Rathvinden @ 10/1 ew

P/L  + €34 to a €10 level stake.

We’re on to Grand National day where we start off with the 3m handicap hurdle. Johnjoe and Barry Geraghty team up with the 7/1 favourite for JP. The interesting one is Debece who is having his first run of the season and @ 10/1 is a good each way price. The 2m 4F novice hurdle is up next where we see Block Op @ 7/4 trying to frank the Samcro form but Nicky got On The Blind Side who missed the Cheltenham race and might be the one @ 9/4. Same kind of profile as the very impressive “We Have A Dream” yesterday. The 2m novice chase is a penalty kick for Petit Mouchoir and his 4/7 quote reflects that. The 3m handicap chase is another wide open handicap so Oldgrangewood @ 10/1 who pulled last time but was showing good form going into Cheltenham and everyone has a bad day!! Lami Serge has been still left in the stayers hurdle after winning here on Thursday but he is the equine equilivant of Paul Casey( The Golfer). Sam Spinner looks short @ 13/8 but the race looks very weak to me. The final race of the meeting the 2m Handicap Hurdle and last years winner Chesterfield is the deserved 4/1 favourite.

 

On to the national, I will go down through a few of the fancied ones. At the moment while putting this together there were four co favourites. Anibale Fly third in the Gold cup winner of the Paddy Power chase, one of the two classy horses in the race will be up there but 11-8 might be a problem. Total Recall the other classy individual in the field has done nothing but improve for Willie Mullins and if he gets a bit of luck and the weight of 11-5 not stop him.He’s the one for me. Tiger Roll is an amazing horse, three times a winner at Cheltenham and if Elliot gets this fellow to win he’s God!! Blacklion is the other co fav, he wont stay. Seeyouatmidnight is an interesting one and could run a big race. Baie Des Iles backed early in the week from 40/1 now 16/1 way to short at that. The Last Samuri, third in the cross country behind Tiger Roll, that was a great effort first time around the cross country course in Cheltenham and I think this fellow time has come and gone. Ucello Conti has this as his aim every year so should run a steady race and might be placed. I Just Know comes from the Sue Smith yard. This is another one not to be discounted. Raz De Maree needs more rain to fall to have a chance and Shantou Flyer has a squeak if all guns blazing on the day. Last but not least Alpha Des Obeaux trained by Mouse Morris and ridden by our friend Racheal Blackmore, will be dancing at the cross roads if this one wins. In conclusion Total Recall wins the 2018 Grand National.

We’re on to Grand National day where we start off with the 3m handicap hurdle. Johnjoe and Barry Geraghty team up with the 7/1 favourite for JP. The interesting one is Debece who is having his first run of the season and @ 10/1 is a good each way price. The 2m 4F novice hurdle is up next where we see Block Op @ 7/4 trying to frank the Samcro form but Nicky got On The Blind Side who missed the Cheltenham race and might be the one @ 9/4. Same kind of profile as the very impressive “We Have A Dream” yesterday. The 2m novice chase is a penalty kick for Petit Mouchoir and his 4/7 quote reflects that. The 3m handicap chase is another wide open handicap so Oldgrangewood @ 10/1 who pulled last time but was showing good form going into Cheltenham and everyone has a bad day!! Lami Serge has been still left in the stayers hurdle after winning here on Thursday but he is the equine equilivant of Paul Casey( The Golfer). Sam Spinner looks short @ 13/8 but the race looks very weak to me. The final race of the meeting the 2m Handicap Hurdle and last years winner Chesterfield is the deserved 4/1 favourite.

 

On to the national, I will go down through a few of the fancied ones. At the moment while putting this together there were four co favourites. Anibale Fly third in the Gold cup winner of the Paddy Power chase, one of the two classy horses in the race will be up there but 11-8 might be a problem. Total Recall the other classy individual in the field has done nothing but improve for Willie Mullins and if he gets a bit of luck and the weight of 11-5 not stop him.He’s the one for me. Tiger Roll is an amazing horse, three times a winner at Cheltenham and if Elliot gets this fellow to win he’s God!! Blacklion is the other co fav, he wont stay. Seeyouatmidnight is an interesting one and could run a big race. Baie Des Iles backed early in the week from 40/1 now 16/1 way to short at that. The Last Samuri, third in the cross country behind Tiger Roll, that was a great effort first time around the cross country course in Cheltenham and I think this fellow time has come and gone. Ucello Conti has this as his aim every year so should run a steady race and might be placed. I Just Know comes from the Sue Smith yard. This is another one not to be discounted. Raz De Maree needs more rain to fall to have a chance and Shantou Flyer has a squeak if all guns blazing on the day. Last but not least Alpha Des Obeaux trained by Mouse Morris and ridden by our friend Racheal Blackmore, will be dancing at the cross roads if this one wins. In conclusion Total Recall wins the 2018 Grand National.

Bets:

2.25 On The Blind Side. @ 9/4.

5.15 Total Recall @12/1.

Tomorrow we start off with the two and a half mile handicap hurdle where they go 9/1 the field. It might be worth taking a chance on Eamon On Cnoic @ 14/1, running well in the Ultima at Cheltenham until he got tired but dropping back in trip and back to hurdles might do the trick. The two mile novice is next where the Ben Pauling Global Citizen is 2/1 Favourite. Again we take a chance with Henrys, Minds Eye @ 20/1 who started the season well but was a long way behind Samcro in Cheltenham. The first grade one of the day is the three mile novice chase where Terrefort heads the betting @ 3/1 followed by Elegant Escape and the tough mare Mia’s Storm which I prefer @ 6/1. She missed Cheltenham after her fall last time out but all seems good and she will run her race.

The feature Melling Chase is next and I make this a match between Min @ 6/4 and Balko Des Flos @ 9/4, at those prices I’d go with Balko. The Topham over the national fences is a major lottery, Willie Mullins Polidam seems to be backed most days but never turns up but these fences might make him tick @ 14/1. The three mile novice, we’re going to avoid all the horses who ran in the Albert Bartlett in Cheltenham and go for Dan Skeltons mare Roksana @ 20/1, she has won three on the bounce and winning is a habit!!

Bets:

1.45 Eamon On Cnoic @ 14/1 ew.

2.20 Minds Eye @ 20/1 ew.

2.50 Mias Storm @ 6/1.

3.25 Balko Des Flos @ 9/4.

4.05 Polidam @ 14/1 ew

4.40 Roksana @ 20/1 ew.

Aintree kicks off tomorrow with the Manifesto novice chase. The quality is far from top notch in this with Brain Power put in at 5/2 favourite, finished second to Footpad in Cheltenham but was ridden for a place in that contest as the front two Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados cut each others throats, not a betting race but if you need to have one might take a chance on Dan Skeltons mare Rene’s Girl @ 6/1 who is on the upgrade and a solid jumper unlike some of these.

Nicky Henderson looks to hold all the aces in the juvenile with joint 2/1 favourites Apples Shakira and We Have A Dream. Nicky says it’s hard to split them but I will. We Have A Dream will come out on top in this contest as the only negative is the jockey for me. if you flipped Barry onto We Have A Dream he’d be a 5/4 shot. Apples was disappointing in Cheltenham in a good Triumph hurdle so we will see tomorrow will she bounce back.

Not going to spend much time on the bowl as if all’s ok with Might Bite he wins this @ 4/5. Again the same can be said about the Hurdle Supasundae @ Evens will win as My Tent or Yours and The New One are behind him in the betting as they will be in the race.

The Foxhunters for me will be an interesting viewing race as to see how the national course is riding. It’s a known fact that you follow the best jockeys in these races and Jamie Codd has been booked by ColinTizzard to ride Grand Vision who’s  a good front running sort. The only negative being  – never been around here before.  Derek O Conner rides his old friend Balnaslow.  Second in this last year and Nina rides On The Fringe twice a winner around here but form has tailed off bigtime but saying that Enda is happy to take his chance. Lots of question marks about most of these but if the Fergal O Brien Barrakilla takes to these @ 14/1 is an each way price.

The two mile handicap chase:  going to stick with King Socks who was one of our bankers at Cheltenham but only finished fifth, so the flatter course might see him getting the better of these @ 5/1. Not a bumper man but John Queally has Getaway Katie Mai in the mares bumper, won and then finished second to Relegate the Cheltenham winner at Leopardstown in February, so 5/2 looks a fair enough price in this.

Bets:

1.45 Renes Girl @ 6/1

2.20 We Have A Dream @ 2/1

3.25 Supasundae @ 10/11

4.05 Barrakilla @ 14/1 ew

4.40 King Socks @ 5/1

5.15 Getaway Katie Mai @ 5/2.

P/L + €69 to a €10 level stake.