Category: SWK Blog

The Dublin Racing festival takes centre stage over the next few days, it’s like back to back Christmas days for national hunt enthusiast. We kick off the DRF with the 2m 6f novices, be great to see Wexford trainer Paul Nolan kicking off the meeting with Latest Exhibition, an impressive winner the last day when getting the better of Andy Dufrense in Navan, this after making a shuddering mistake down the back. He won’t have it his own way with the likes of Fury Road, Longhouse Poet and Elixir D’Ainay in the field, a competitive start to the day. The 2m 1f Dublin chase comes up next and this will be fast and furious. A Plus Tard got the better of Chacun Pour Soi the last day at Leopardstown, CPS will go off fav for this as his lofty reputation will see to that but Rachael and A Plus Tard will keep them honest. The 2m 1f novice is next up where Notebook and Fakir D’ouadaries head the betting. Notebook’s victory over Fakir is the best bit of form to go on but this will be a tight affair again with jumping at speed a premium. The Irish champion hurdle looks a shoot-out between HDB very impressive mare Honeysuckle and the Mullins duo of Sharjah and Klassical Dream. The latter of the Mullins duo needs to step up to the mark very soon or he be jumping a fence shortly, that leaves Sharjah who has a great turn of speed inside the final furlong. Honeysuckle ticks all the boxes for me and a win here makes her the one to beat in Cheltenham in the champion. The two handicaps are extremely difficult on Saturday but the Liam Cusack trained Snugsborough Hall is the selection in the chase and the Gordan Elliott Thatsy in the Hurdle.

The juvenile hurdle kicks off the graded action on Sunday and for me this is easy as Aspire Tower wins here and again in Cheltenham. The 2m novice hurdle might only have 7 declared but 5 of them count. Mt Leinster is slowly improving but might need a stiffer task and a very hard one to call. The Flogas novice chase over 2m 5f is fascinating, after watching Faugheen in Limerick over the Christmas you thing it would take a good one to beat him. His stablemate Easy Game got the better of Allaho the last day, the Cheverly park runners first outing and he was impressive the last day out. Battleoverdoyen the Elliot runner will keep the Mullins duo on their toes. The Gold cup is up next where the layers have put in Kemboy as jolly over Delta Work, Presenting Percy and Chris’s Dream for me the only ones that count. The HDB trained Chris’s Dream is the interesting one for me and let’s see can he push himself up onto the top table of staying chasers. Percy is slowly improving so a big run needed here, that leaves Kemboy and Delta Work both clashed in the Savills chase where DW got the better of Kemboy (first run this season) by 3 ½L. I think Kemboy will turn the tables on DW. Going to take a chance on Chris’s Dream an impressive winner of the Troytown in late November, freshness might count when it comes down to a battle inside the final 100 yards. The handicaps Sunday are next to impossible so following the money is always a good guide unless you completely miss the price it’s all about value. Dallas Des Pictons runs for Gordan and Jack in the 2m5f handicap chase and after getting a crazy mark from the British handicapper can go very close here.

Best Bets:

Saturday: Honeysuckle (nap) 6/4.  Snugsborough Hall 6/1.

Sunday:    Chris’s Dream 6/1. Dallas Des Pictons 7/1.

This week I have a special golf blog to point you on the way of golf betting in 2020. Let’s get the good stuff out first, the number one golfer to follow this year on the European tour is Austrian Matthias Schwab. I have him down to win at least twice this year. Schwab is yet to enter the winners enclosure but he is a winner waiting to happen and it could start with this week’s Dubai Desert Classic.  Others golfers to win this year will be Bernd Weisberger who is back to form after his long term injury. Also,  Victor Perez. Now that the young Frenchman has an experienced caddie on the bag.

For anyone who plays the exchanges, here are 5 golfers to lay. At the minute they are floating around the leader board at short enough prices as all 5 are as flaky as a box of crunchy nut cornflakes. Rafa Bello Cabrera who I advised on twitter last week to lay @9.6 when a shot behind after two rounds, he ended up finishing 12^th. Sergio Garcia and Thomas Pieters just can’t putt. Rickie Fowler and Paul Casey two brilliant ball strikers but lots of questions to be answered when in contention.

The next section is about the top 10 golfers in the world.

Brooks Koepka: At least one major in this fellow again this year and when in contention gets the job done..

Rory McIlory: This fellow is a head scratcher so I am  going to say he will win gold in the Olympics and as per usual will be very inconsistent.

John Rahm: Future number one in the world, the world is his oyster so watch out when he gets on a run.

Justin Thomas: Already a winner this year but I think he has reached his peak!!

Dustin Johnson: The man that has the golf betting world broke, come on DJ you have the talent just read it roll it hole it..

Tiger Woods: Going to say no majors this year for Tiger.

Patrick Cantlay: Has got it all and more important a super putting stroke, I think the wins could flow.

Justin Rose: Mr Consistency.

Xander Schauffele: Read Patrick Cantlay..

Tommy Fleetwood: Will win at least two big tournaments including a major in 2020.

The young guns. I will give you two from each tours to keep an eye on. In Europe Adri Arnaus and Kalle Samooja and in the states Talor Gooch and Jaoquin Niemann. Each week from now on I will post the golf tips on the social media sites so happy punting.

Dubai Desert Classic:

Matthias Schwab 50/1. Mike Lorenzo Vera 70/1.

Farmers Insurance:

Xander Schauffele 18/1. Talor Gooch 125/1.

Big weekend of sport to keep us all on our toes over the next few days. The Dublin racing festival is the headline act for racing fans where 8 winners came out to win in Cheltenham. The start of the six nations, the in running of two golf tournaments on both tours, the second weekend of the hurling league along with the football and even the super bowl.

We’re going to get the weekend off to a flyer with France and Wales tonight, I’m all over the draw @ 22/1, be on Betfair in play to take as much out of the market as i can. The half time draw is 9/1 and this is fair enough price and finally the Halftime/Fulltime market the Draw Draw is 100/1 worth a few euro.

Onto the two days of the DRF, we start with the 12.50 Saturday, the novice hurdle Rhinestone @ 12/1 is a bit of value in this. The champion hurdle is a watch race. 2.00 the Ladbroke hurdle. Charles Byrnes has the front two in the market Wonder Laish gone up 25lbs for his two victories, but will that stop him and last year’s winner Off You Go. Blazer @ 25/1 reverting back to hurdles is interesting, finishing second to Sharjah in the Galway Hurdle on runs of 4lbs higher and might make the frame. The Dublin Chase Min looks the one as it’s not the strongest renewal. The Arkle, Le Richebourg is the only ante post bet I have in Cheltenham so far, so I hope he enhances his reputation in this. Like Moon Over Germany  @ 5/1 in the handicap chase, running in his first handicap chase connections like this fellow and is sure to run a big race.

Sunday starts off with the mare’s handicap hurdle and Sinoria for Rachael runs in her first handicap of 135. She won a minor event in Down Royal on Stephen’s day and I think she is ahead of the handicapper at the moment. In the juvenile event the two talking horses are Sir Erec and Tiger Tap Tap,  but I like Joseph’s other runner Gardens Of Babylon to run a big race. Ruby picks Klassical Dream ahead of Aramon in this so I can see flip flopping favourites. The Handicap Hurdle is wide open and might be worth taking a chance on Jimmy Breekie at big odds. The Flogas chase looks like a cracking event and I think Hardline is a great each way price. The Gold Cup, Road to Respect was unlucky at Christmas but way too short for me, the market will tell you about the Mullins horses Al Boum Photo and Bellshill, Balko Des Flos is a head scratcher for me this season. Black Scorpion runs for Eric in the handicap chase, was running a cracker in the Paddy Power when falling. Vieux Morvan ran a cracker last time out and might be the one in this.

Best Bets:

France v Wales Draw @ 22/1.

Saturday: 12.50 Rhinestone @ 12/1 ew. 2.00 Blazer @ 25/1 ew. 4.20 Moon Over Germany @ 5/1.

Sunday: 12.40 Sinoria. 1.15 Gardens Of Babylon ew. 2.25 Jimmy Breekie ew. 3.00 Hardline ew.

Holding my hands up, 12 tips 12 losses this week!! Hoping the wheel can turn soon, but if at first you don’t succeed, try try again. Lucky the golfers started off good this week.

We start with the 1m handicap and the one that sticks out for me is the Andy Slattery’s trained Kudbegood, running in his first handicap this one might have a few pounds in hand and @ 8/1 is a good each way price. The main event this evening is the Guinness 1m 4f handicap where WP Mullins sends out the short priced favourite Limini who was touched off the other night by stablemate Uradel in the amateurs handicap Monday evening. He is a fragile horse and @ 11/8 way too short for me so if you fancy one don’t be afraid to get stuck in at generous odds. The handicap chase is wide open and after Snugborough Benny run the last day punters will be latching onto him. Vieux Morvan for Joesph and his cousin JJ Slevin have the right credentials for this one and had a good pipe opener in Killarney 16 days ago. The final race of the night is the handicap hurdle where Mick Mulvany’s On The Go Again heads the betting. This guy has been a super servant for his connections and with Russell in the saddle this evening wont lack for anything. Wont be surprised to see this fellow win with ease but not great value. Due Reward @ 9/1 looking for a hat trick of victories looks the improving one.

Bets:

5.45 Kudbegood @ 8/1 ew.

6.50 Mawanny @ 9/1 ew.

7.55 Vieux Morvan @ 7/1 ew.

8.25 Due Reward @ 9/1 ew.

 

P/L  – €120 to a €10 level stake.

Not going to plan at the moment but Rome was not built in a day! Results not punter friendly but hope that changes!

Just a rant first as Patrick’s Park came in as a reserve yesterday at around 3.30 into the Plate, and went off favourite. Simply, this rule has to change as Willie Mullins took out another one of his, Ballycasey to let Patricks Park in.

On a happier note, good to see Limerick born jockey Mark Fish Enright winning the Galway Plate on board Clarcam for Gordan Elliott. Before, Fish was better known as the jockey who came out over a year ago saying depression was a common as a cold among jockeys.

The Galway hurdle is the centre piece of today’s card and John Joe Walshs Davids Charm will justify favouritism. This fellows mark has been minded since winning in Listowel last year and the juice in the ground will only help. The rest of the card sees Ruby riding two short price ones including Exchange Rate who he fell off the other night. Rachael can start the day well on Schmidt in the beginners Chase. The 1 mile handicap sees the consistent Tony The Gent carry top weight and with good draw in 5 might see him go close.

Bets:

1.40 Schmidt 7/1 ew.

2.50 Tony The Gent 5/1.

4.35 Davids Charm 6/1.

P/L – €80 for Galway Week. 🙁

 

Yesterday was a tough day for most punters, as the three Ger Lyon’s horses I tipped broke bad and never got into the races, but that happens in Galway! It’s the nature of the track as we all know.

Today we start off with Galway plate and Kitten Rock @ 16/1 is the selection, coming back from 391 days off the track it might be a big ask but has a touch of class, finished 6^th in the champion hurdle in 2015 behind Faugheen and is rated over a stone higher over hurdles. The Harry Fry trained Drumcliff might make it a one/two for owner JP McManus. Has been trained with this race in mind for awhile now and has form on soft ground while the Jockey booking of 7lb claimer Aine O Connor is a big plus. This girl knows the time of day. Debuchet looks the one to get favourite backers off to a winning start in the first. Powersbomb looks well in in the opening handicap hurdle. Ayr Of Elegance running in her first handicap might be the one for Henry De Bromhead in the mares handicap hurdle.  The one mile flat handicap is a wide open event and it could pay to follow our friend Harry Rogers with Big Bad Sal at big odds.

Bets:

5.40 Powersbomb @ 7/1ew.

6.10 Ayr Of Elegance @ 25/1ew.

7.20 Kitten Rock @ 16/1 ew.

8.00 Big Bad Sal @25/1ew.

P/L  – €40 to a €10 level stake.

Apologies for not posting the blog yesterday but had a little hurling hangover!!

Anyway onwards and upwards. Day two’s feature is the Colm Quinn 1 mile handicap with a full field of 18 declared. Ger Lyons has the 4/1 favourite Inscribe, a race that Lyons has been eyeing up for this horse all season, drawn 9th is not ideal but with the ground now in his favour this fellow will go close. Lyons also runs Brendan Bracken, winner of this race as a four year old five years ago, this guy has an ideal draw in one and might run into a place with most firms paying 5 places.

Would Be King @ 13/8 is the nap of the night in the 7.05 maiden. This guy has been expensive to follow, up to now, but looks a very ordinary maiden and this place might suit this fellow down to the ground. Ruby got off to a flyer on his come back ride last evening and rides the jolly in the first again this evening.  The novice chase might be worth taking a chance on Gangster @ 8/1 for the in form team of De Bromhead and Blackmore, Rachael on 99 winners as a pro in Ireland might hit the ton tonight.

Bets:

5.55 Gangster 8/1 ew.

6.25 Gold Memory 10/1 ew.

7.05 Would Be King 15/8 (NAP)

7.40 Inscribe 4/1.

Just as an FYI this blog was penned Friday afternoon as my editor is heading off to the sun with her winnings from my tips!!

Going to start off with the feature on Saturday, the mares champion hurdle. Apples Jade @ 6/4 is by far my nap for the week, reported in some quarters to be found in season after her run in Cheltenham. The 4yo hurdle looks like a cracking event with Farclas, Mr Adjudactor and my selection Stormy Ireland @ 3/1 all clashing again.

The Pat Taaffe handicap chase opens the card on Saturday where we have a tentative selection for the Liam Cusack trained Lasoscar, off the course for the last four months but running off this mark, there’s a nice prize during the summer for this guy. The 3m 6f chase Forever Gold is the one to be on, running a cracker,  finishing third in the Irish national on ground he hates.

To finish off the Punchestown week going to plum for Uradel, made favourite on his handicap bow in Fairyhouse and with the experience of that run and with Rachael on board hopefully we can end the meeting with a bang..

Bets:

3.10 Lasoscar 10/1ew.

5.00 Forever Gold 9/1ew.

5.35 Uradel 20/1ew.

P/L. +€71 to a €10 level stake.

A rare thing happened yesterday I tipped a 12/1 winner, Dawn Shadow doing the business in the mares novice hurdle for the Dot Love and Rachael Blackmore partnership. The trainers championship looks all but over with Willie holding a lead of €424K, even if Samcro wins today Willie is surely going to fill the placings..

Going to start today with the novice handicap chase, this looks an open looking contest with Kemboy put in as 9/2 favourite, winning nicely in Limerick the last day after falling early in the Irish national, our pick Koshari @ 12/1, a stablemate of the favourite, also winning a minor event in Clonmel the last day and its a bit of form splitting Invitation Only and The Storyteller here in January won’t see him far away, of course having Rachael on board is going to be a big help. In the mares handicap chase Slowmotion @ 6/1 is the pick, she is carrying top weight in this but don’t let that put you off as she is a big strong mare, also coming back from a break she will be ready to run as Joseph gets them fit. The only thing I will say about the Champion hurdle is Samcro @ 4/5 is very short. The champion novice going to side with the Mags Mullins trained Debuchet @ 6/1. I have liked this fellow for a while now and I think the better ground will help this one go very close. In the 2m novice going to go with the Mullins second string again, Antey @ 14/1 is a good each way price, with a quiet ride from Noel Fehily he could well run into a place or even better.

Bets:

4.20 Koshari @ 12/1 ew.

4.55 Slowmotion @ 6/1 ew.

6.05 Debuchet @ 6/1 ew.

7.10 Antey @ 14/1 ew.

P/L  + €13 to a €10 level stake.

We’re going to start today’s blog with a little chat about the goings on yesterday. When you’re struggling to find a winner for the blog readers and you tip up Blast of Koeman, is it time to give it up ?? This guy must have Robert Tyners heart and pockets well broken, he is some thief! He came there yesterday looking to have everything covered but did his best to lose Philip over the last who did some job to stay on, as I said yesterday on the blog this handicap chase was full of rogues!! What can you say about WPM 6 winners yesterday, hard to add to whatever has been said already but come the big day Willie’s horses run to their optimum. What must Gordon be thinking? Will a million be enough next year going into this meeting. Read a good one on twitter last night about Paul Townsend saying it was like the person in the office who looks after the Irish lottery syndicate by mistake did the euro millions but there numbers came out on the Irish lotto and he was not very popular of course but by some chance the same numbers came up in the Euro millions the next day. Getting a bit worried about the way the green and gold colours are preforming at the moment especially the number one jockey has only ridden 21 winners in Ireland this season, a change is coming….

Going to concentrate on the three handicaps and the mares novice today. Western Ruler @ 14/1 is the one to set the ball rolling today for Mouse and Rachael, a good winner in Fairyhouse, gone up 9lbs but this might not stop this fellow. Three Stars @ 11/1 is my bet of the day in the handicap chase, ran a cracker behind Patricks Park at Leopardstown February, fifth in the Johnny Henderson at Cheltenham and both two lines of form have been well franked. Dadsintrouble @ 50/1 in the 6.05 handicap hurdle could run well above his price and the trip to Ireland from Tim Vaughan’s welsh yard might raise this fellows game. In the mares novice Dawn Shadow @ 12/1 never seems to but in a bad performance for Dot Love, she has been active all year and I can see Rachael guiding this one into the money.

Bets:

3.40 Western Ruler @ 14/1 ew.

4.05 Three Stars @ 11/1 ew.

6.05 Dadsintrouble @ 50/1 ew.

7.15 Dawn Shadow @ 12/1 ew.

 

P/L – €32 to a €10 level stake.