Month: March 2018

My god that went fast!!!  Onto the last day already and it’s make or break time for lots of people today so hopefully we can steer you towards a winner or two.

Going to start off with the blue ribbon event of the meeting the Gold Cup. When penning this Thursday morning we have joint favourites Might Bite and Native River both @ 9/2. Let’s start off with the positives for Native River, the ground and the jockey Richard Johnson, I think myself this fellow will bounce and I will be disappointed if he is good enough to win a Gold Cup. Have fancied Road to Respect now @ 14/1 for this for awhile but the ground is now a worry but that didn’t stop Tiger Roll. Might Bite is by far the class animal in the field and should be clear favourite. Just a word on Our Duke his form beating Presenting Percy in Gowran looks good now but still lots to prove. Edwulf whose price has detracted over the last few days had a bad experience in Cheltenham last year and if he has no mental scars from that,  will be hunted around and could pick up the pieces.

The opener tomorrow is the Triumph hurdle,  a race I don’t have a strong opinion about, backed Mr Adjudicator the last day and @ 8/1 is a new price. The County Hurdle is next, Sandsend @ 14/1 is the one here, ran a cracker the last day to get the better of Forge Meadow in the Limestone Lad hurdle in Naas and if he improves his jumping a touch it will take a good one to pass our selection. Poetic Rhythm @ 12/1 is going to be our selection in the Albert Bartlett for Ferghal O Brien, the softer the better for this boy he’s as tough as nails. The Martin Pipe is a race that the Gordon Elliott has his eye on for awhile with the JP McManus Sire Du Berlais @ 10/1, the British handicapper has raised him 9lb but with the help of top conditional Donie McInerney, he will take some stopping in this with any kind of a run. The last is the Grand Annual and if your behind going into this just call another drink as next year’s festival is only 361 days away!!

Best Bets:

2.10 Sandsend @ 14/1 ew

2.50 Poetic Rhythm @ 12/1 ew

4.50 Sire Du Berlais @ 10/1 ew

P/L – €54 after Day 2.

Again a note to start, this Blog was penned Wednesday morning.

Not the start to the meeting we were looking for with only two placed horses out of five. As they say things can only get better or there will be questions asked!! Thursday starts off with the JLT novice chase –  a race I don’t have a strong opinion about, Invitation Only @ 3/1 heads the market for the in form team of Mullins and Walsh, Modus and Finians Oscar are two in this I don’t fancy so Shattered Love for Gordon @ 17/2 will give you a good run for your money as she might go from the front and be hard to catch.

The Pretemps final is impossible, so going to move onto the Ryanair straight away. Un De Sceaux wins this @ 11/8 a fair price in my eyes, the two Henry De Bromhead Balko Des Flos and Sub Lieutenant might fill up the placings. Moving onto the stayers hurdle Apples Jade is still in this and as I speak being nibbled at on the machine so this could be interesting yet, as she didn’t show her true colours on Tuesday. Sam Spinner is the current 4/1 favourite, but a word of warning on this fellow if your going to back him I would advise caution and see how he gets through the preliminaries and if all looks good down at the start then have your bet even though his odds might be shorter. Supasundae  now available @ 11/2 looks the new play in the race.

The Brown Advisory and Merribelle chase is a race the Pipes like to win having succeeded three times since 2010. They have King Socks @ 9/1 in this, in his last two runs in France he was beaten by Footpad finishing second on the last occasion,  2 ½ lengths behind, ran only once in the UK and not knocked around when beaten. Laurina @ 4/6 looks a good thing in the mares novice, like to see the Dot Love trained Dawn Shadow run a big race here for Rachael Blackmore.

The Kim Muir is the lucky last on Thursday and Squouateur @ 5/1 moment has arrived. All the times you backed this fellow when he has been gambled on today is redemption, believe you me. Pat Kellys Mall Dini has been lined up for this for a long time and the booking of Patrick Mullins is a positive.Today is going to be the Codd Fathers day sneaking around and pouncing late on.

 

Best Bets:

4.10 King Socks @ 9/1 ew

5.30 Squouatear @ 5/1.

P/L – €24 after Day One Cheltenham.  Overall + €131 all to €10 level stake plan.

 

Just a note at the start of the blog for day two, this was penned Tuesday before racing. With the ground heavy and soft in places, the worst since 1982. This puts more questions into the mix of trying to pick winners. The Ballymore starts off the proceedings tomorrow, with the second coming as he’s known Samcro @ 8/11. This fellow looks awesome but are you willing to get stuck in at the price, I’m not! Willie has two solid horses in this with Next Destination (Ruby) and Duc Des Genievres (Paul) and the jolly will be tested to the limit to keep these two at bay.

The RSA is a cracking race. I’ve been sweet on Dounikos for a while now and as I said in yesterday’s blog the 4 miler was the race for him, but anyway he’s lining up in this and I’m not going to desert him. @ 8/1 a good each way price. Presenting Percy is a smashing horse but his races building up to the festival are head scratching. Saying that for me this guy is on my shortlist for next year’s Gold Cup. Monalee is as tough as old boots. He had a horrible fall at Christmas but bounced back with victory the last day and it will take a good one to pass this fellow up the hill.

Willie Mullins holds the key to this year’s Coral Cup, he has five going to post. Max Dynamite @ 8/1 is the one for me with his stable companion Voix Du Reve and Barra chasing him up the hill. The Champion Chase is a watch race with the slight scare with Ailtor at the start of the week seeing him drift but reports this morning are that all is good. Douvan, love to see him back to his best but hard to see and Min is going to have to run the race of his life to get near a 100% Alitor.

On to the cross country, for sure,  I can tell you Gordon is going to win it. I have fancied Tiger Roll for this for a long time now but the ground is a serious worry @ 6/1,  a fair enough price now I think. All needs to go right for him to topple his stablemates, Cause Of Causes and Bless The Wings. The Fred Winter is a lottery but pays to follow Paul Nicholls in this over the years and he has two,  Act Of Valour and Grand Sancy. The bumper,  I’m going to keep it simple Gordon told the O Leary’s he’s running Felix Desjy @ 7/1 in this and that’s good enough for me because they hate the race,  so they say.

Best Bets:

2.10 Dounikos @ 8/1 ew

2.50 Max Dynamite @ 8/1 ew

5.30 Felix Desjy @ 7/1 ew

P/L  + €155 to a €10 level stake (Before Tuesday Racing)

It was the night before Cheltenham and all the adults will be in bed early!! Rain, rain go away, come back another day!! That’s what most connections are saying on the run up to the greatest horse racing festival of the year, with the ground heavy and soft in places, it looks like it’s going to be a slog out there this year but probably the ground most of the horses have been running on this all year.

Let’s start off with the feature tomorrow – the Champion, Hurdle Buveur D’air @ 8/15 is a very short price to regain his crown. In his three starts this year he has beaten nothing of note so has not been extended as he dodged the bullet by not coming over to Leopardstown for the Irish Champion. Willie is throwing four darts with Faugheen, Yorkhill, Wicklow Brave and Melon. The machine was in working order first time out this year but in his last two runs looks a different horse altogether. Yorkhill is probably running in the right race for him but having a season to forget, so hard to trust him. Melon was very disappointing with the headgear on last time so runs without this time and Wicklow Brave on the other hand not seen jumping hurdles since his win in the Punchestowm Champion hurdle last April. With his last run being in the Melbourne Cup in November. This is not a betting race for me as the likely winner is the favourite who is way too short.

The opening contest of the meeting, the supreme is going to tell us what the grounds going to be like on the old course for the first couple of days. Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci have their usual favourite Getabird @ 13/8 in this event. Very impressive last time out when sprinting away from his field but I got reservations about him going left handed. Kalashnikov did the business for us @ 12/1 in the Betfair hurdle so not going to abandon the Amy Murphy runner now, even though it was very soft the last day. I think better ground would have suited this horse, first off the bridle the last day but just keeps on galloping and is a solid each way selection @ 9/2 in the first.

The Arkle only has five going to post with two only counting Footpad and Petit Mouchoir. Saint Calvodus now going second favourite is a no no for me especially at the price now. I just think the English are mad to back one and they have decided this is the one. That’s good news for Petit Mouchoir fans as he is now available @ 3/1. Footpad has been electrifying over the big obstacles this year and everything is going right for him going into the festival. My fancy, Petit Mouchoir missed the first fence the last day and headbutted the second on his come back run and I think himself and Footpad should be closer together in the betting.

In the mares hurdle this is going to be very straight forward Apples Jade @ 8/13 wins this at her ease. Another way in if you don’t back odds on shots is the without market and Jers Girl @ 13/2 is a solid new bet. The four miler in which I backed Dounikos for this, now going for the RSA, thought this was the race for him but Mr Elliott knows better!! Jury Duty is the uneasy favourite for this, as I type @ 9/2 has the Codd father on board. This is a major plus but I’m going to go for his stablemate Mossback with Lisa doing the steering @ 6/1. The JP McManus No Comment might go off favourite on the day as he looks a plot horse for this. Rathvinden is another with a squeak but ending up on the ground the last two times might be lacking a bit of confidence.

The two handicaps look very tough, the Ultima sees soft ground specialist Coo Star Sivola being backed into favouritism @ 5/1. Singlefarmpayment @ 7/1 beaten a short head in this last year( I nearly cried) has had a frustrating season so far but might go close as this is not a great looking race. The Close brother novices chase Barney Dwan @ 8/1 is the one for me, with the Ferghal O Brien string in good form. This guy went close last year when finishing second to Presenting Percy in the pretemps final. The Plotting Shed and Any Second Now head the market in this one.

Bets:

1.30 Kalashnikov 11/2 ew.

2.10 Petit Mouchoir 7/2.

2.50 Singlefarmpayment 15/2 ew.

4.50 Mossback 6/1 ew.

5.30 Barney Dwan 9/1 ew (NAP)

P/L Horse Racing Blog  + €155 to a €10 level stake plan.